doi:10.3850/978-981-08-7619-7_P009
Approaches to Rare Events in Stochastic Dynamics of Ships
Vadim Belenky1,a, Kenneth Weems2, Christopher Bassler1,b, Martin Dipper1,c, Bradley Campbell1,d and Kostas Spyrou3
1David Taylor Model Basin - NSWCCD, 9500 Macarthur Blvd., W. Bethesda, MD, USA.
aVadim.Belenky@navy.mil
bChristopher.Bassler@navy.mil
cMartin.Dipper@navy.mil
dBradley.Campbell@navy.mil
2Science Application International Corporation, 4321 Collington Rd, Bowie, MD, USA.
Kenneth.M.Weems@saic.com
3National Technical University of Athens, Heroon Polytechniou 9, Zografou, Greece.
K.Spyrou@central.ntua.gr
ABSTRACT
This paper reviews the formulation of problems related to extreme ship motions in random waves and approaches to solving these problems. The dynamical system is characterized by integro-differential equations. The bandwidth of excitation is medium; stiffness is extremely nonlinear and random. In standard ship design, the main tools for the engineering evaluation are model experiments and numerical simulations using potential flow hydrodynamics with empirical models for non-potential flow forces. However, a direct Monte Carlo approach is impractical because of the high cost of running these tools and the rarity of extreme motion events. To obtain a practical solution, the principle of separation is used to separately consider the nonlinear phenomena resulting in an extreme response and the conditions that lead to the occurrence of such phenomena. This paper discusses fundamental aspects of three methods that use the principle of separation: the peaks-over-threshold/envelope peaks-over-threshold method, the split-time method, and the wave group method.
Keywords: Rare events, Monte Carlo method, Stability of ship in waves.
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