Proceedings of the
8th International Symposium on Geotechnical Safety and Risk (ISGSR)
14 – 16 December 2022, Newcastle, Australia
Editors: Jinsong Huang, D.V. Griffiths, Shui-Hua Jiang, Anna Giacomini, Richard Kelly
doi:10.3850/978-981-18-5182-7_07-012-cd
A Bayesian Framework for Settlement Predictions of Immersed Tunnels
1State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Macau, Macao, People's Republic of China
2State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Macau, Macao, People's Republic of China, Center for Ocean Research in Hong Kong and Macau (CORE), Hong Kong SAR, China
ABSTRACT
In immersed tunnels, the considerable settlement that can develop during their service period may induce structural damage. Accordingly, the effective predictions of settlement are crucial for an immersed tunnel in service. This paper proposes a Bayesian updating framework for predicting the settlement of immersed tunnels based on a beam on elastic foundation model (BEFM) and using knowledge gathered from field observations to promote prediction accuracy. The procedure combines the differential evolution transitional Markov chain Monte Carlo (DE-TMCMC) algorithm and finite element solving algorithm to perform effective samplings and settlement computations. Field application in the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao (HZM) immersed tunnel is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.
Keywords: Settlement, Immersed tunnel, Bayesian updating framework, beam on elastic foundation model, Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao tunnel
