Proceedings of the

The 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2023)
3 – 8 September 2023, Southampton, UK

Investigation on the Capacity of Deep Learning to Handle Uncertainties in Remaining Useful Life Prediction

Khanh T. P. Nguyen1,a, Zeina Al Masry2,c, Kamal Medjaher1,b and Noureddine Zerhouni2,d

1Laboratoire Génie de Production, INP-ENIT, Université de Toulouse, France.

2SUPMICROTECH, CNRS, institut FEMTO-ST, 24 rue Alain Savary, Besançon, F-25000, France.


Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is subjected to multiple uncertainty sources, such as measurement errors, operating conditions, and model representation capability. The quantification of the prediction uncertainty is important for assisting decision-making. In literature, stochastic processes have proven their efficiency in handling uncertainties in prognostics by providing RUL distribution. However, they have limitations in their adaptability to capture the dynamic behaviors of complex systems. To address this issue, it is recommended to employ deep learning (DL) methods that usually generate point-wise RUL predictions instead of RUL distribution. Therefore, the objective of this work is to investigate the capacity of DL methods to manipulate uncertainty in RUL predictions. Particularly, the probabilistic deep learning (PDL) framework is used to predict the RUL distribution instead of a point-wise RUL value. The obtained results by PDL are compared with the analytic solutions of the stochastic processes to highlight the uncertainty management capacity of PDL.

Keywords: Stochastic processes, Prognostics and health management, Deep learning, RUL prediction, Uncertainty management.

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