Proceedings of the
35th European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL2025) and
the 33rd Society for Risk Analysis Europe Conference (SRA-E 2025)
15 – 19 June 2025, Stavanger, Norway
Taking on the NASA and DNV Challenge 2025: Bayesian Calibration and Optimization Under Hybrid Uncertainty
1Chair for Reliability Engineering, TU Dortmund University, Dortmund 44227, Germany
2Institute for Risk and Reliability, Leibniz University Hannover, Hannover 30167, Germany.
3International Research Training Group 2657 (IRTG 2657): Computational Mechanics Techniques in High Dimensions, Leibniz University Hannover, Hannover 30167, Germany
4Chair of Engineering Materials and Building Preservation, Helmut-Schmidt-University, Hamburg 22159, Germany
5International Joint Research Center for Engineering Reliability and Stochastic Mechanics, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China
ABSTRACT
This paper addresses the NASA and DNV challenge on optimization under uncertainty, where participants were tasked with calibrating the uncertainty models of aleatory and epistemic parameters of an unknown system using a computational model and synthetic data, and identifying control parameters for different objectives. We present two approaches for model calibration, namely Bayesian optimization and sequential Bayesian updating. Additionally, a reliability-based optimization scheme based on a Bayesian approach and subset simulation is used to tackle a design optimization problem.
Keywords: Bayesian Model Updating, Bayesian Optimization, Approximate Bayesian Computation, Optimal Design Under Hybrid Uncertainty, Subset Simulation.
