A Modelling and Computational Framework for the Assessment of the Supply Resilience of Gas Transmission Pipeline Networks

Natural gas transmission pipeline (NGTP) networks are infrastructures, whose operation is critical in view of growing global energy demand. Unexpected natural gas supply interruptions have occurred in the last decade, highlighting the critical role of reliability and resilience of NGTP networks. Graph theory, complex networks analysis, thermal-hydraulic and transient/steady-state gas flow models have been applied to assess the capacity and flow of gas pipeline networks. NGTP networks are considered as multi-component systems subject to single failure modes of a rate often assumed constant. The flow analyses are performed for the whole network without considering the priority of gas-receiving terminals and the associated different penalty schemes for gas not supplied. The present work proposes a framework for modelling and analysing of the capacity and flow of NGTP networks subject to multiple failure causes and considering repairs. Graph theory and Markov chain are used for modelling and a Monte Carlo Simulation is used for quantification. A numerical example is used to illustrate the overall modelling and computational framework. The results of the application of the modelling and computational framework here proposed work can inform operational management strategies for reducing the risk of service disruption and improving NGTP resilience.

Keywords: Gas pipeline networks, Supply resilience, Network flow analysis, Markov chain, Network flow optimisation, Monte Carlo simulation.