A New AI Solution to Maritime Cybersecurity Risk Prediction

The digitalisation of maritime systems, including ships, ports, and operational networks, has significantly increased their exposure to cyber threats and risks. These risks can disrupt critical infrastructure and cause global repercussions, requiring new solutions to improve maritime cybersecurity risk prediction. This study aims to develop a new AI solution with limited data to enable cybersecurity risk prediction. It utilises Large Language Models (LLMs) for prompt-based zero-shot learning, enabling accurate classification of text and extraction of key cyber risk factors. A comprehensive dataset spanning 2001 to 2020 was developed, introducing new risk factors critical for assessing cyber threats that are yet to appear in any state-of-the-art studies in the field. This extracted dataset was integrated into a Bayesian Network (BN) model to identify probabilistic relationships and predict potential cybersecurity risks. The hybrid approach is among the pioneers of using new AI technologies for text mining to enrich risk data and realising multiple source data fusion for improved risk prediction, hence making significant theoretical contributions to safety sciences. By leveraging the advanced capabilities of LLMs alongside probabilistic modelling, the study has shown its methodological novelty through a scalable, adaptive methodology that can enhance risk predictive accuracy and strengthen general and maritime systems against evolving cyber risks in specific. From an applied research perspective, it provides an in-depth analysis of maritime cybersecurity within the context of the fast growth of maritime digitalisation and brings significant managerial insights into practice. Such insights are invaluable for stakeholders, enabling them to identify vulnerabilities, anticipate threats, and prioritise resources effectively. This integrated framework equips policymakers with the tools needed for proactive decision-making, supporting the development of targeted cybersecurity strategies to minimise operational disruptions.

Keywords: Maritime cybersecurity, Large language models, Zero-shot learning, Bayesian network, Risk analysis.