Maximum Potential Intensity of Typhoon as Information for Possible Natural Disaster

Shinya Shimokawa^1,a, Takahiro Kayahara^1,b and Hisashi Ozawa^{2 1}National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Preventio, Tsukuba, Ibaraaki 305-0006, Japan. ^asimokawa@bosai.go.jp ^bkayahara@bosai.go.jp ²Hiroshima University, Higashi-Hiroshima, Hiroshima 739-8521, Japan. hozawa@hiroshima-u.ac.jp

ABSTRACT

The maximum potential intensities (MPIs, maximum wind speed in this study) of typhoons in western North Pacific for present-day and future climate were calculated. The present-day MPIs were calculated using JRA-25 and NCEP2 reanalysis data, and appeared to increase around the 1990s. The MPI using JRA-25 data was marginally higher than that using NCEP2 data. Six future MPIs were calculated using a numerical model with six different sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of CMIP3 models. The results were highly dependent on the SST, and the future climate experiment with the highest average MPI did not always show the highest MPI around Japan. We publicly opened our MPI maps on the internet via a database we developed, the typhoon disaster database. The number of people who access the database increased when a typhoon was approaching Japan, particularly when approaching densely populated regions. Increasing access to the database will lead to enhance people to access MPI maps. The information of MPI can raise disaster awareness and be useful in local disaster prevention practices.

Keywords: Typhoon disaster, Global warming, Maximum potential intensity, Numerical simulation, Disaster awareness.

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