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<doi>MS-19-105-cd</doi>

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<article-title>Simulation and risk evaluation of possible superstorms hitting Europe&#39;s north sea coast</article-title>
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<author>Y. Sun<sup>1</sup>, M. Bittner<sup>1,2</sup>, Y. Zhang<sup>3</sup> and M. Beer<sup>1,4,5</sup></author>
<aff><sup>1</sup>Institute for Risk and Reliability, Leibniz University Hannover, Germany</aff>
<aff><sup>2</sup>International Research Training Group 2657, Leibniz University Hannover, Germany &amp; ENS Paris-Saclay, France</aff>
<aff><sup>3</sup>Department of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China</aff>
<aff><sup>4</sup>Institute for Risk and Uncertainty, University of Liverpool, UK</aff>
<aff><sup>5</sup>Shanghai Institute for Disaster Prevention and Relief, Tongji University, Shanghai, China</aff>
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<title>ABSTRACT</title>
<p>Due to climate change, the European coast needs to be reassessed regarding safety factors against natural disasters such as tropical cyclones, superstorms, floods, and the general rise in sea level. Within this work, a data-driven model to simulate artificial superstorm events that might hit the German north sea coast is established. By revisiting a historical storm event, namely &#34;Ophelia&#34;, a stochastic model has been derived which enables the prediction of wind speed and water level for specific locations of interest. The simulation is carried out using a hybrid coupled model (ADCIRC+SWAN) which combines wind speed propagation, wave propagation, and wave heights. In the end, this model shall provide the basis for a new safety assessment of the German north sea coasts, with the aim of reducing the risk to residents and minimizing economic damage by proposing suitable countermeasures for possible severe weather or flood events.</p>
<p><italic>Keywords: </italic>Coastal risk simulation, Coupled model, Wavefield, superstorm simulation, European coastline.</p>
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