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<doi>MS-12-019-cd</doi>

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<article-title> Optimal shell design with polymorphic uncertain parameters</article-title>
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<author>M. Fina<sup>1</sup>, C. Lauff<sup>2</sup>, and W. Wagner<sup>1</sup></author>

<aff><sup>1</sup>Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Structural Analysis, Kaiserstr. 12, 76131 Karlsruhe, Germany</aff>

<aff><sup>2</sup>Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Engineering Mechanics, Kaiserstr. 10, 76131 Karlsruhe, Germany </aff>

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<title>ABSTRACT</title>
<p></p><p>Shell structures are highly demanded structures in civil and aerospace engineering. Their curved shape allows a slender structural design with low dead weight and high load&#45;bearing capacity. The curvature form, imperfections, boundary conditions, material and loading have a major influence on the load-bearing behavior. An optimization&#45;based design of shell structures with deterministic  models implies precision. In reality, all data and information are characterized by various types of uncertainty, e.g., natural variability, incompleteness &#40;ack of knowledge&#41;, and imprecision &#40;measurement errors&#41;. These uncertainties have not been sufficiently considered  in traditional design concepts for shells so far. In the presented contribution a multi&#45;objective optimization of shells with polymorphic  uncertain parameters is performed. Based on available data the uncertainty quantification of a priori and design parameters with appropriate polymorphic uncertainty models is discussed. To show the procedure, a stiffened cylindrical shell is investigated. However, the uncertainty should not only be quantified, but also reduced by a subsequent optimization procedure improving the robustness, economy and safety of the shell designs. Therefore, several uncertainty reducing measures are evaluated. An optimization procedure with polymorphic uncertainty models leads to a nested-loop problem which is &#45; from a computational point of view &#45; very expensive. Finally, a surrogate model strategy is discussed for replacing complex shell models to reduce the numerical effort.</p><p><italic> Keywords:</italic> shell design, polymorphic uncertainty modeling, optimization, surrogate modeling</p></abstract>
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