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<doi>GS-03-129-cd</doi>

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<article-title>Oil spill preparedness: Modelling challenges and implications for decision-making </article-title>
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<author>E.P. Ford<sup>1</sup>, H.P. Lohne<sup>1</sup>, and J.T. Selvik<sup>1,2</sup></author>

<aff><sup>1</sup>NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Norway. </aff>

<aff><sup>2</sup>University of Stavanger, Norway. </aff>

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<title>ABSTRACT</title>
<p>Oil spills can occur from petroleum activities in sensitive geographical regions, and such spills are of serious environmental concern. To reduce the consequence of such spills, measures can target the probability, rate, and duration of a well blowout, or attempt to limit the impact of any spills through oil spill response measures. This paper presents a simplified stochastic framework for representing realistic oil spill scenarios and possible oil volumes recovered. The framework is used as a basis for discussing relations between parameters in assumed spill scenarios and efficiency in oil spill recovery, and how this may impact decision-making related to oil spill preparedness planning and dimensioning. Crucial issues of response measures include type of technology, suitability, localization and mobilization capacity. The paper also presents specific challenges that need to be overcome in order to improve both modelling and decision-making relating to oil spill preparedness. </p><p> <italic> Keywords:</italic>risk, blowout, environment, modelling, decision-making </p></abstract>
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