From Failures to Risks: A Data-Centric Framework for Assessing Tailings Storage Facilities in China

Tailings storage facility (TSF) failures in China have caused severe downstream fatalities, economic losses, and environmental damage. However, incomplete national documentation and poorly quantified magnitude-frequency relationships hinder systematic risk assessment. This study consolidates historical and current TSF databases, identifying 143 failure events—significantly exceeding prior estimates ( ∼ 20). Failures peaked during 2005–2010 (63 cases). Magnitude-frequency analysis reveals return periods of  ∼ 5 years for ≥ 10 fatalities and  ∼ 16 years for ≥ 1 Mm³ released volumes. China hosts 14,217 active TSFs, yielding a cumulative failure rate of  ∼ 1%. A supplementary database details structural parameters (e.g., storage volume, dam height) and downstream exposures (Jilin Province case). Integrating these data, we developed a regional risk assessment framework for Jilin, identifying 11 high-risk TSFs. This work provides the most comprehensive TSF characterization in China, supporting scalable risk mitigation strategies.

Keywords: Tailings storage facility, Dam failure, Failure rate, Risk assessment.