Stress Testing Analysis of Exposure Threats of Mountain Bridges to Glacier Hazards: Insights from Peilong Glacier, Southeastern Tibet

Climate warming is a significant driver of the increased frequency of glacier cascading hazards in the mountain cryosphere, particularly in the Tibetan Plateau. The region has been experiencing a rapid warming trend, with temperatures rising at a rate of 0.25-0.35°C per decade, which is nearly double the global average warming rate of approximately 0.15°C per decade. The cascading hazards induced by climate warming pose significant threats to the bridge infrastructures. Based on Peilong glacier in Southeastern Tibet, this study conducts a comprehensive stress testing analysis of glacier hazards, integrating remote sensing data with physical-based numerical modelling. Utilizing long-term meteorological records and debris-ice rheological modelling, the research elucidates the volume and thickness of unstable mass sources. A simulation program is employed to analyse multi-scenario hazard dynamics, predicting runout distances, velocities, and deposition patterns. By quantifying deposition distributions along river courses under various glacier detachment scenarios, the study assesses the potential size of barrier dams, thereby establishing a robust foundation for quantitative risk assessment.

Keywords: Peilong glacier, Stress testing, Glacier hazard chain, Bridge.