Assessing the Impact of Extreme Cold Waves on Buried Water Pipelines: An Integration of Historical Pipe Failure and 3D Simulation

The increasing frequency and intensity of climate change-induced extreme weather events like cold waves have raised concerns about their impact on buried water pipelines. This study investigates the effect of severe cold waves on buried water pipelines by combining historical pipe failure data analysis with advanced 3D simulation techniques. We analyzed 19 years of pipe failure data from an urban area in Eastern China during cold wave periods, focusing on the correlation between cold wave failure rates and temperature parameters. Our findings reveal a significant increase in pipe failure rates during cold wave periods, particularly at very low temperatures. Furthermore, the relationship between the failure rate and the duration of the cold wave follows a 'bathtub curve.' A 3D finite element (FE) model was developed to simulate the thermo-mechanical behavior of buried water pipelines under cold wave-induced soil temperature conditions obtained from field data. The simulation results show that pipe peak stress varies with temperature changes, with a 0.3°C/hr increase in cooling rate resulting in a 4.8% increase in peak pipe hoop stress. Prolonged cold wave duration (DCW) increases pipe stress, with an increase in DCW from 48 hours to 120 hours leading to a 13.5% increase in stress. However, a small rise in the temperature difference between the inside and outside of the pipe does not significantly affect pipe stress, while a greater increase is expected to cause a notable rise in pipe stress. The results highlight the significant effect of cold wave-induced extreme temperatures on pipe failure rates and mechanical behavior. These findings are crucial for improving infrastructure resilience and informing future design and maintenance protocols in response to changing climatic conditions.

Keywords: Water pipeline, Extreme cold wave, Annual failure rate, Cold wave failure rate, Thermo-Mechanical model, Hoop stress.