Proceedings of the
9th International Symposium for Geotechnical Safety and Risk (ISGSR)
25 – 28 August 2025, Oslo, Norway
Editors: Zhongqiang Liu, Jian Dai and Kate Robinson
CPT-Based Probabilistic Analysis of Monopile Foundations Considering Spatial and Transformation Uncertainties
1Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und -prüfung (BAM), Germany.
2GuD Geotechnik und Dynamik Consult GmbH, Germany
3Engineering Risk Analysis Group, Technical University of Munich, Germany
ABSTRACT
This study utilizes cone penetration testing data data from a real offshore windfarm project in the North Sea and presents a method for incorporating both, statistical and spatial uncertainties, in a reliability-based assessment of monopile foundations. Initially, a Gaussian Process regression model is constructed to predict a 3D map of the cone tip resistance and the associated uncertainties in the predictions and the hyperparameters, leveraging Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. The CPT-based prediction is combined with a correlation derived from data collected at a nearby site to predict the probability distribution of the friction angle at a test location, which is subsequently used to evaluate the probability of failure for a monopile foundation with a finite element model.
Keywords: Monopile design, CPT, Gaussian process regression, Bayesian inference.
