Prediction of Punch-Through Risk of Spudcan Foundation Based on Bayesian Method

The installation of spudcan foundation of jack-up platforms in stiff-over-soft clay may occur punch-through failure due to the complexity of marine engineering geological conditions. However, the current deterministic methods recommended in the guidelines can only predict the peak penetration resistance of the spudcan foundation based on the assumption of uniform soils, which do not consider the uncertainty of soil properties in the complex seabed. Bayesian method can improve the predicted accuracy of peak penetration resistance and the corresponding depth by allowing the quantitative modeling of uncertainties in geometric and geotechnical parameters. This paper illustrates a developed Bayesian prediction model to realize the real-time prediction of peak penetration resistance and the corresponding depth. Different calculation models of peak penetration resistance and depth are applied to the Bayesian method to study the influence of different calculation models on the estimation of punch-though failure. The results show that the prediction accuracy increases with the increase of monitoring data, and the error of peak value by the developed Bayesian prediction model is within 5%.

Keywords: Spudcan foundation, Bearing capacity, Punch-through, Clays, Bayesian method.