Proceedings of the
8th International Symposium on Geotechnical Safety and Risk (ISGSR)
14 – 16 December 2022, Newcastle, Australia
Editors: Jinsong Huang, D.V. Griffiths, Shui-Hua Jiang, Anna Giacomini, Richard Kelly
doi:10.3850/978-981-18-5182-7_05-012-cd
An Improved Coupled Markov Chain Model for Simulating Geological Uncertainty
1School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, China.
2School of Architectural Engineering, North China Institute of Science and Technology, Langfang, China
3School of Engineering, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, Melbourne, Australia.
ABSTRACT
Modeling the uncertainty of subsurface stratigraphy is very important for geotechnical engineering problems. Among many models for the geological uncertainty simulation, the coupled Markov chain (CMC) is an effective and widely used model. However, the horizontal transition probability matrix (HTPM) of CMC model is difficult to be determined for geotechnical engineering problems. This paper aims to develop an improved CMC model with an analytical method for estimating the horizontal transition probability matrix (HTPM). The overall tendency of the stratum can be judged by the analytical method and the simulating sequence is determined by the overall tendency. The validity of the overall tendency judgement method is examined through some typical strata. The accuracy of the proposed HTPM estimation method and the strata generated by the improved CMC model are also evaluated. It is found that the overall tendency judgement of each stratum is correct and the overall tendency judgement method is effective. The accuracy of the HTPM estimation and the generated strata are high and insensitive to borehole schemes. The proposed model can well simulate the geological uncertainty based on borehole data.
Keywords: geological uncertainty, coupled Markov chain, horizontal transition probability matrix, analytical method
