Proceedings of the
The 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2023)
3 – 8 September 2023, Southampton, UK
Plenary Talk
Launch Vehicle and Spacecraft Risk Analysis Applications
NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Abstract
The United States space program for decades has primarily used coastal launch sites in California, Florida and Virginia as these locations offer less risk exposure to the public in case of an accident. With the push towards commercial launches, newer spaceports are being planned and developed as more accessible and affordable alternatives, such as Boca Chica Launch site in Texas, Mojave Air and Space Port inland California, and Corn Ranch Spaceport in Texas.
The Office of Commercial Space Transportation, part of the Federal Aviation Administration which administers the air traffic control over the United States, approves any commercial launch operation. As part of the launch approval process, the risk to the public is assessed. This talk presents a brief overview of a launch vehicle/spacecraft risk analysis from launch through landing, using the ill-fated, but trailblazing, X-33 as the example.
Biography
Dr. Todd Paulos has over 30 years of experience in the space, aviation and nuclear industries. He currently works at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory in the Systems Reliability Group, and is the Probabilistic Risk Assessment Point of Contact for the laboratory, assessing the need for PRA across all JPL missions, and directly supporting programs such as Europa Clipper, Psyche, and Mars Sample Return. As part of the larger NASA wide community, Dr. Paulos is a main author of NASA’s PRA Guidebook, NASA policy requirement document 8715.26 on nuclear flight safety, and has contributed to an international guidance document on post mission disposal risk assessment (along with the Japanese and European space agencies). Additionally, Dr. Paulos is a member of NASA’s Reliability and Maintainability Technical Discipline Team. Dr. Paulos may be familiar to you as he has supported the International Association for Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (IAPSAM) organization since its inception, is the past President, current Treasurer, was the General Chair of PSAM 2014 in Honolulu, the Technical Chair of PSAM 2022 also in Honolulu, and has been to the joint ESREL-PSAM meetings through the years, and is looking forward to our future collaborations.
