Proceedings of the

The 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2023)
3 – 8 September 2023, Southampton, UK

Application of Data-Driven Bayesian Belief Network for the Analysis of Factors Contributing to Risk of Civil Aircraft Shooting Down Over Conflict Zones

Stanislav Bukhmana, Mario P. Britob and Ming-Chien Sungc

Centre for Risk Research, Southampton Business School, University of Southampton, United Kingdom.


Aviation security incidents such as shooting down civilian aircraft over the conflict zones stay one of the most significant challenges of civil aviation industry. While industrial regulations do not provide standardized objective risk assessment methodology, a significant array of publicly accessible data is available for an analysis with the help of machine learning algorithms. This study demonstrates a possibility to utilize data-driven Bayesian Belief Networks in order to develop probabilistic model and identify factors influencing on aviation security event.

Keywords: Bayesian belief networks, Data-driven, Probabilistic model, Risk, Security, Aviation.

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