Proceedings of the

The 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2023)
3 – 8 September 2023, Southampton, UK

A Generalised Linear Model for the Risk Assessment of Civil Aircraft Bomb Sabotage Attack

Stanislav Bukhmana, Mario P. Britob and Ming-Chien Sungc

Centre for Risk Research, Southampton Business School, University of Southampton, United Kingdom.


The risk of a civil aircraft being exploded by terror or criminal groups stays one of the largest concerns in aviation security nowadays. Significant efforts have been made by the industry to mitigate this risk by the introduction of advanced methods of passengers, baggage and cargo screening. Nevertheless, several successful and failed attacks on civil aircraft were registered in recent years. In this paper we argue that it is possible to predict the risk of a bomb attack based on historical data. We show that security and geo-political data can inform aa Generalized Linear Model that estimates a likelihood of bombing incident on a civil aircraft in a given country.

Keywords: Aviation bombing, Security, Risk, Machine learning, Generalized linear model.

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