Proceedings of the

The 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2023)
3 – 8 September 2023, Southampton, UK

Forecasting Risks Using the Competence of Experts

Vugar Aliyev1, Zurab Gasitashvili2, Merab Pkhovelishvili3 and Natela Archvadze4

1AMIR Technical Services Company, Azerbaijan.

2Georgian Technical University, Georgia.

3Muskhelishvili Institute of Computational Mathematics, Georgian Technical University.

4Computer science departament, Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University, Georgia.


It is often impossible to build risk prediction models - since it is difficult to obtain and analyze large volumes of data in some subject areas statistics. Therefore, when calculating risks, specialists with high competence are often involved. It is also important to calculate the changes in their competence after each audit, which can lead to a change in the composition of the expert group. The expertise is based on the use of human experience and is carried out with the involvement of experts. It is of great importance both when predicting natural and technogenic disasters, and in the prevention of these disasters due to the maximum possible reduction in risks which is expressed in the calculation of the seismic resistance of buildings and structures. We have developed an expert selection system and subsequently an algorithm for calculating the competence of experts based on their expertise.

Keywords: Expert assessment, Expert component, Necessary expert, Sufficient expert.

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