Proceedings of the

The 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2023)
3 – 8 September 2023, Southampton, UK

A Bass Diffusion-Inspired Methodology to Predict Device Activity

Ardeshir Raihanian Mashhadia, Ryan Bradelyb and Lin Shic

Amazon Lab126, USA.


Understanding device activity over the lifetime of consumer electronic products is critical in two ways. First, it determines the extent to which a product maximises utilization during its usage phase, which is a critical pillar of circular products. Second, it allows for better estimations of usage phase carbon footprint, which is essential in Life cycle Assessment (LCA) of consumer electronics. This manuscript proposes a methodology for cold start forecasting of device activity data via a Bass diffusion inspired model to predict Monthly Active Devices (MAD) over the lifetime of a product.

Keywords: Bass diffusion, Device activity, Circularity, Product reliability, Optimization, Consumer product.

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