A Bass Diffusion-Inspired Methodology to Predict Device Activity

Understanding device activity over the lifetime of consumer electronic products is critical in two ways. First, it determines the extent to which a product maximises utilization during its usage phase, which is a critical pillar of circular products. Second, it allows for better estimations of usage phase carbon footprint, which is essential in Life cycle Assessment (LCA) of consumer electronics. This manuscript proposes a methodology for cold start forecasting of device activity data via a Bass diffusion inspired model to predict Monthly Active Devices (MAD) over the lifetime of a product.

Keywords: Bass diffusion, Device activity, Circularity, Product reliability, Optimization, Consumer product.

Download PDF