Proceedings of the

The 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2023)
3 – 8 September 2023, Southampton, UK

A Short-Cut Tool to Manage NaTech Risk in Chemical Industry Due to Floods

Ancione Giuseppaa and Milazzo Maria Francescab

Department of Engineering, University of Messina, Italy.


Industrial sites are frequently built close to large rivers and coasts in order to facilitate the supply of raw materials, the export of products and the exchange of goods. However, these arrangements expose the equipment to the risk of being involved in floods or coastal surges. The hazard can be considerably increased when the establishment is a Seveso industry, i.e. an establishment classified as at major accident hazard according to the Directive 2012/18/EU, also known as the Seveso III Directive. Accidental scenarios due to the release of hazardous materials, triggered by natural phenomena, are named NaTech (Natural Technological event). In Europe, during the last decades, the frequency and severity of extreme natural phenomena giving rise to NaTech events in Seveso industries is growing. Hundreds of Italian Seveso establishments are exposed to flood risk, for this reason this work aims improving a short-cut tool for the dynamic assessment of NaTech risk triggered by flood waves and floods. This tool supports emergency managers in choosing the best strategies to implement actions mitigating the consequence of this type of event. It consists of a Bayesian network in which the frequency and magnitude combined with information about the vulnerable elements (included in the territory), deefined as discrete variables, make possible to quantify a NaTech risk index. This index is updated in real time according to the local conditions. The approach has been applied to an Italian case study.

Keywords: NaTech event, Risk management, Dynamic risk assessment, Flood, Bayesian network.

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