Proceedings of the

The 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2023)
3 – 8 September 2023, Southampton, UK

The Procedure Performance Predictor (P3): Application of the HUNTER Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis Software to Inform the Development of New Procedures

Ronald L. Boring1,a, Thomas A. Ulrich1,b and Roger Lew2

1Human Factors and Reliability, Idaho National Laboratory, USA.

2Virtual Technology and Design, University of Idaho, USA.


The Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) software has been designed to provide a simplified framework for modelling dynamic human reliability analysis (HRA). HUNTER essentially creates a virtual operator (i.e., a digital human twin) that controls and responds to a virtual power plant (i.e., a digital twin or full-scope simulator) according to a procedural script. HUNTER has successfully modelled control room operator performance for nuclear power plant incidents, producing realistic human error probabilities, courses of actions, and time durations. Recent engagement with U.S. nuclear industry stakeholders has identified uses for HUNTER and dynamic HRA beyond traditional probabilistic safety assessment. As nuclear power plants upgrade to new digital control rooms, or as control rooms are built for advanced reactors like small modular reactors, there emerges a unique situation for the operating procedures at plants. Existing procedures for legacy plants have been vetted and validated across numerous iterations. Yet, as new technologies emerge in control rooms, there is often little operating experience to inform the development of the new procedures. A Revision Null operating procedure is of concern for both procedure writers and plant safety personnel. Building on HUNTER's handling of procedures, a special variant of HUNTER is being developed, called the Procedure Performance Predictor (P3). HUNTER-P3 allows procedure writers to script a novel procedure to simulate operator and plant performance in the use of that procedure. HUNTER-P3 identifies potential error traps with the novel procedure, thereby creating a way to screen procedures for suitability and safety. HUNTER-P3 also includes consideration for deviations from the procedures to flag potential disparities between work as imaged vs. work as done.

Keywords: HUNTER, Human reliability analysis, Dynamic, Procedure, Work as imagined, Work as done.

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