Statistical Analysis and Modelling of Small Satellite Reliability

Smaller launching systems and highly reliable components have become dominant demand in the small satellite sector. This notwithstanding small satellites have been the cause of the majority of space debris. It is therefore correct to ask, what is the survivability of small satellites? To address this question a small satellite database was constructed based on 4567 small satellites deployed from 1990 to 2022. All satellites are restricted with a launch mass of no more than 500kg. In this paper, we present the survival distributions for different types of satellites based on satellite mass category, standard compliance and subsystem contribution. Our findings show that after the successful launch, microsatellites and minisatellites are equally reliable within the first 20 years on-orbit, with approximately a 98% reliability rate. Compared to microsatellites and minisatellites, picosatellites and nanosatellites exhibit high infant mortality and short lifetimes, which is no more than 10 years. We have found that the small satellite designed based on ECSS (European Cooperation for Space Standardization) and NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) standards have a relatively higher reliability rate than that of satellites that comply with JAXA and other standards. With respect to subsystem behaviour, the communication system is the major contributor to small satellite failure, thus designers should pay more attention to addressing no signal, and software disconnection-related problems.

Keywords: Reliability, Small satellite, Statistical analysis, On-orbit failure, Mass, Standard.

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