Proceedings of the

The 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2023)
3 – 8 September 2023, Southampton, UK

Comparison of Flight Safety Between Different Aircraft Modifications

Marta Woch1,a, Justyna Tomaszewska2, Mariusz Zieja1,b and Michał Hinderer3

1Air Force Institute of Technology, Poland.

2Polish Air Force University, Poland.

3Institute of Aeronautics and Applied Mechanics, Warsaw University of Technology, Poland.


This paper discusses the relationship between the next aircraft modifications on the number and consequences of accidents or incidents. The problem is discussed on the example of selected models of the Boeing brand. The first part of the paper discusses the impact of introducing new designs on flight safety. The differences between modifications of selected Boeing aircraft are briefly presented. Definitions of an accident and an aircraft incident are quoted and the sources of data used for the analysis are presented. In the next part of the study, the number of aircraft of a given type in service at a given time was estimated based on delivery reports. The numbers of aircraft in service were compared with aircraft accident and incident reports. The number of adverse occurrences per aircraft of a given type in the sequential years following the introduction of a new model was presented in tables and graphs. In the following part of the study, the probability of occurrence of different loss categories in the first two years of operation after the launch of the new aircraft models was calculated. Finally, the results obtained are summarised and discussed as well as interpreted.

Keywords: Aviation, Boeing, Aircraft evolution, Cause of accidents, Machine learning.

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