Proceedings of the

The 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2023)
3 – 8 September 2023, Southampton, UK

Development of a Software Tool to Implement Reliability Assessment of Developing Technologies

João Mateus Santana1, Eduardo Menezes1,a, Isis Lins1,b, Márcio Moura1,c, Rafael Azevedo1,d, Caio Maior1, Manoel Feliciano da Silva2,e and Marcos Vinicius Nóbrega2,f

1Center for Risk Analysis and Environmental Modeling, Brazil.

2CENPES/Petrobras - Research Center Leopoldo Américo Miguez de Mello, Brazil.


The reliability assessment of under development O&G equipment is a critical matter to the industry and has been increasingly pursuit by the stakeholders. In this context, it is essential to aggregate information from different taxonomical levels and from different development phases, which consists in a challenge to the traditional reliability tools. The use of a multilevel reliability model, in conjunction with the Bayesian approach, is one of the possible pathways to estimate reliability of developing technology. However, given the large amount of data and the hermetic knowledge needed to apply Bayesian methods, it is fundamental to have a reliability computational tool to implement the reliability estimation. In this work, a reliability software developed to deal with multilevel Bayesian reliability models specifically developed for the O&G industry is presented. The software tool allows the user to input equipment information and characteristics, and provide the reliability estimation all over the development process, giving the decision-makers the means to use the reliability as a key decision variable in the developing technology pathway.

Keywords: Reliability analysis, O&G industry, Software applications, Developing technologies.

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