Reliability Criteria Estimation of O&G Industry Equipment in the Concept Selection Process

The design and development of new products are complex processes. After defining potential alternatives, frequently called "concepts", that fulfil most criteria, they must be compared, ranked, and/or selected. The concept selection becomes even more challenging at an early stage of development, when a limited amount of data is available, making it difficult to quantify some criteria, such as reliability. However, there is little to non-existent reliability data at the concept selection stage. Also, many studies do not detail the reliability criterion when estimating it. We can obtain a prior reliability distribution for each concept, by using data from generic sources, such as expert opinion. This study proposes a method to estimate reliability criterion in the concept selection process. The criterion is quantitative, considers the reliability with an associated probability distribution, accounts for the reliability uncertainty, and based on probabilistic reliability models, specified using experts' opinions. We apply the Weighted Rating Method (WRM) for multicriteria decision-making regarding the concept selection. Three different concepts of oil well equipment is compared. Besides the reliability criteria, costs, flexibility, integration, and time are also evaluated. The results can help the parties involved in the process to base decisions on more robust reliability criteria, enabling the selection of more credible equipment to contribute to the industry's end activities' efficiency.

Keywords: Concept selection, Oil and gas industry, Oil well equipment, Reliability criteria, Bayesian prior distribution, Weighted rating method.

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