Proceedings of the

The 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2023)
3 – 8 September 2023, Southampton, UK

Estimating Tropical Cyclone induced Power Outages in Future Climate Scenarios

Zaira Pagan-Cajigas1,a, Seth Guikema1,b, Charles Fant2,c and Brent Boehlert2,d

1Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan, MI, United States.

2Industrial Economics Inc., MA, United States.


This study investigates the impact of tropical cyclones on power outages at the census tract level, considering climate change's impact on the hazard's intensity and frequency. For this analysis, we use seven climate models to generate the synthetic tropical cyclones corresponding to historical data and future scenarios as well as a power outage model to predict the fraction of outages at each census tract. Our main objective is to evaluate if future climate scenarios will increase the frequency or produce longer-lasting outages for the Gulf and East Coast of the US.

Keywords: Power outage predictions, Outage model, Climate models, Data analysis, Climate change projections.

Download PDF