A New Model for Fuel Transfer Leak Frequencies

This paper presents a new model of the frequencies of leaks during the transfer of fuels between transport units and fixed installations. The model covers loading and unloading of bulk liquids and liquefied gases on marine, road and rail tankers through flexible hoses and articulated arms. It is based on a review of 35 sources containing original data on transfer leaks and associated activity. After evaluating the quality of each source, the model was based on a detailed analysis of six sources that had high quality ranking. These were used to develop a leak frequency model that takes account of site-specific operational characteristics and safety measures. The model estimates the frequency of transfer leaks of different sizes, frequency-quantity distributions and causal breakdowns.

This paper explains the model's methodology and presents preliminary results for standard transfer scenarios. Being traceable to documented analyses of recent leak experience in actual fuel transfer operations, these results are much higher in quality than any previous estimates of transfer leak frequencies. Once validated by industry, they will greatly improve the validity of quantitative risk assessments of fuel transfer operations.

Keywords: Risk assessment, Fuel transfer, Leak frequencies, Arms, Hoses.

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