Proceedings of the

The 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2023)
3 – 8 September 2023, Southampton, UK

Facility-Level Downtime Estimation Using Only Publicly Available Data

Seth D. Guikema

Industrial and Operation Engineering, University of Michigan, USA.


This paper develops a model for estimating the likelihood of building-level loss of infrastructure services due to natural hazards based on only publicly-available information. The three steps to the method are: (1) generate synthetic infrastructure systems, (2) generate engineering performance models for these systems, and (3) simulate hazard impacts on these synthetic systems. The approach provides a strong basis for buildng-level downtime estimation for infrastructure systems.

Keywords: Natural hazards, Risk analysis, Infrastructure, Downtime.

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