Proceedings of the

The 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2023)
3 – 8 September 2023, Southampton, UK

Estimation of Economic Losses Associated with Intentional Attacks to Process Facilities: A Vulnerability-Based Approach

Giulia Marroni1, Valeria Casson Moreno1, Gabriele Landucci1, Sanneke Kuipers2, Dino Dentone3, Marcello Mossa Verre4 and Werner Overdijk5

1Department of Civil and Industrial Engineering, University of Pisa, Largo Lucio Lazzarino n.2, 56126 Pisa, Italy /EADDRESS/
2Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University, Turfmarkt n.99, 2511 DP Den Haag, the Netherlands /EADDRESS/
3DataCH Technologies s.r.l., Via Leonardo da Vinci n.5, 57123 Livorno, Italy /EADDRESS/
4Regional Agency for Environmental Protection of Tuscany, Via del Ponte alle Mosse n.211, 50144 Florence, Italy /EADDRESS/
5Crisisplan BV, Frambozenweg n.123, 2321 KA Leiden, the Netherlands /EADDRESS/


As security threats increase, the development of quantitative metrics for security assessment has become a concern in the last years. Still, current methodologies mostly focus on the performance of security barriers, without considering the performance of safety barriers and the economic losses associated with intentional attacks. This study evaluated the economic losses of a successful intentional attack accounting for the combined performance of safety and security barriers. The application to a case study highlighted the importance of considering integrated safety-security approaches to guide decision makers in allocating resources correctly.

Keywords: Integrated safety-security assessment, Bayesian networks, Economic loss estimation.

Download PDF