Proceedings of the

The 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2023)
3 – 8 September 2023, Southampton, UK

A Weighted Fuzzy CREAM for Assessing Human Error Probability in Risky Experiment Operation

Zhang Renyou, Zhang Qinhao, Zhang Jinchao, Meng Lu, Chen Sisi and Cui Huanhuan

School of Safety Engineering, Beijing Institute of Petrochemical Technology, Beijing /EADDRESS/


Laboratory safety accidents have recently been recognized as a new topic for safety research, and the existing research shows that human factor is a leading factor that causing laboratory accidents. However, at present, particular research on Human Error Probability (HEP) quantification of risky experiments in laboratory is limited. Therefore, it is necessary to implement Human reliability analysis (HRA) technique to quantify HEP during risky experiments in laboratory. Due to the above description, this study proposes a weighted fuzzy Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Methods (CREAM) to deal with HEP quantification for laboratory safety. The proposed method comprehensively considers each the weight of each Common Performance Conditions (CPC), each CPC's fuzzy membership degree, and the weight of each activated fuzzy If-Then rule to determine the final membership degree of each control mode. Afterwards, the wanted HEP value can be estimated by the centre of area defuzzification.

This study selects the 12 · 26 laboratory explosion accident in a university in Beijing, 2018, as the example, and through the proposed method, the HEP value and levels of the human reliability can be collected. Finally, some particular efforts can be reasonably made to avoid human errors.

Keywords: Human reliability, Human error, Fuzzy CREAM, Laboratory safety.

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