Proceedings of the

The 33rd European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2023)
3 – 8 September 2023, Southampton, UK

Research on Construction Method of Change Risk Basedata in Chemical Industry

Zhang Yuan1,a, Guo Xiaoyan1,b and Liu kun2

1SINOPEC Research Institute of Safety Engineering Co., Ltd., China.

2SINOPEC Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Company, China.


Non-standard management of change and inadequate risk identification may lead to catastrophic accidents. In view of this, this paper proposes a construction method of change risk base based on multiple safety evaluation theories. Through the analysis of typical change cases and accident cases of domestic and foreign chemical industry, the subject words that can characterize the risk characteristics of various changes were determined, and the framework of multi-level and multi-chain change risk base was established by different devices. The method of fault tree analysis, analytic hierarchy process and set pair analysis is used to determine the key event inducing factors and control measures, complete the construction of the device change risk base, and provide basic data support for the comprehensive risk identification of the change process and the subsequent risk intelligent reasoning and push technology research.

Keywords: Management of change, Fault tree analysis, Analytic hierarchy process, Set pair analysis.

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