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<doi>S33-06-643-cd</doi>
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<article-title>Data Driven Bayesian Network to Predict Critical Alarm</article-title>
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<author>Joseph Mietkiewicz<sup>1</sup> and Anders L. Madsen<sup>2</sup>  </author>

<aff><sup>1</sup>Hugin Expert A/S, Food Science Environmental Health TU Dublin. </aff>

<email><a href="mailto:D21127042@mytudublin.ie  ">D21127042@mytudublin.ie  </a></email>

<aff><sup>2</sup>Hugin Expert A/S,Department of Computer science, Aalborg University, Denmark. </aff>

<email><a href="mailto:anders@hugin.com ">anders@hugin.com </a></email>

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<title>ABSTRACT</title>
<p>Modern industrial plants rely on alarm systems to ensure their safe and effective functioning. Alarms give the operator knowledge about the current state of the industrial plants. Trip alarms indicating a trip event indicate the shutdown of systems. Trip events in power plants can be costly and critical for the running of the operation. This paper demonstrates how trip events based on an alarm log from an offshore gas production can be reliably predicted using a Bayesian network. If a trip event is reliably predicted and the main cause of it is identified, it will allow the operator to prevent it. The Bayesian network model developed to predict trip events is purely data-driven and relies only on historic data from the alarms log from offshore gas production. We describe the method used to build the Bayesian network and the approach used to identify the most key alarm related to the trip. We then assess the performance of the Bayesian network on the alarm log of offshore gas production. The preliminary performance results show significant potential in predicting trips and identifying key alarms. The model is developed to support the decision-making of a human operator and increase the performance of the plant.  </p><p><italic>Keywords: </italic>Alarm management, Bayesian network, Prediction of trip event, Time-stamped sequences, Sensitivity analysis. </p>
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