Probabilistic Vulnerability Assessment Framework for Road Networks Considering Social Variables

Community wellbeing is dependent on access to a variety of critical infrastructure. When access is disrupted, it can result in societal impacts that are often difficult to quantify. The Capability Approach has been used in several research domains to quantify community wellbeing as it provides a degree of objectivity in identifying metrics that reflect individual freedoms and opportunities. This study proposes a methodology for vulnerability assessment of communities based on the level of access they have to critical infrastructure and uses a Capability Approach based framework to estimate access-vulnerability subjected to flood hazard. A Monte Carlo simulation-based model is proposed that generates a synthetic population using weighted random sampling that mirrors the individual characteristics based on census data. The access of this population to infrastructure deemed necessary for their continued wellbeing based on the Capability Approach is then evaluated using travel-cost as a metric. The model simulates disruptions in the network through stepwise random link or node removals incorporating randomized flood distribution with varying return periods. The proposed methodology is applied to the County Fingal region of Ireland and presented as a case study, specifically focusing on three central human capabilities': life, bodily health, and bodily integrity. Vulnerability indices are computed for various locations based on these randomized scenarios, reflecting the varying degrees of risk faced by different demographic groups. The findings emphasize the importance of social variables in understanding and mitigating the impact of access disruptions on communities.

Keywords: Capability approach, Flood risk assessment, Community wellbeing, Transport network analysis.