Proceedings of the
35th European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL2025) and
the 33rd Society for Risk Analysis Europe Conference (SRA-E 2025)
15 – 19 June 2025, Stavanger, Norway
Risk Beyond Doctrine - An Empirical Study of NATO's Risk Management Integration in Planning
1North Atlantic Treaty Organization & Supreme Allied Commander Transformation's Professional Doctorate Program, Norway.
2Made to Measure Mentoring Limited & University of Derby, England.
ABSTRACT
This study examines NATO's integration of risk management in planning, assessing its practical application in large-scale exercises. Despite adopting ISO 31000, inconsistencies persist between doctrine and implementation, warranting further investigation. Using privileged access, the study analyzes instructional documents, 20 interviews, and observations from seven NATO headquarters this paper reveal considerable variance in risk conceptualization, doctrinal deviations, and bureaucratic obstacles, complicating unified risk integration. These inconsistencies highlight NATO's challenges in achieving coherent risk management. However, findings suggest NATO's professional practice aligns more closely with risk science principles than NATO's own doctrine.
Keywords: Doctrine, Planning, Decision-making, Military operations.
