Proceedings of the
35th European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL2025) and
the 33rd Society for Risk Analysis Europe Conference (SRA-E 2025)
15 – 19 June 2025, Stavanger, Norway

Towards Practical Definitions of Quality of Maritime Risk Analyses During Procurement Processes

Hermanni Backer Johnsen1, Mirka Laurila-Pant2,a, Valtteri Laine2,b, Vesa Arki2,c and Floris Goerlandt3

1NDPTL Secretariat, Nordic Investment Bank, Finland.

2Fairways, Traficom, Finland.

3Department of Industrial Engineering, Dalhousie University, Canada.

ABSTRACT

In the maritime context, national authorities and other actors regularly procure risk analyses from external providers. In the public sector this requires the drafting, publishing and evaluating the outcomes of formal calls for tenders. In such procurement processes, the quality of the received proposals is typically highlighted as a key criterion to be used when deciding on the winning bid, alongside other features such as price and the availability of sufficient personnel/other resources. This implies estimating the quality of a risk analysis, before it is carried out. As this is naturally a challenging task, the quality criteria of risk analyses are commonly simplified one way or another, often involving the perceived quality of previously produced studies or simply relying on the provider's overall reputation. This might be convenient in practical situations where a provider must be selected under time pressure. However, it may present a missed opportunity to ensure best value for money and, in the bigger picture, raise the standard of commissioned risk studies and the field at large. Our contribution builds on the SRA Risk Analysis Quality Test with a specific focus on which tests could be relevant for the risk analysis tendering stage. Based on an initial review by the authors, we propose two lists of key criteria for this purpose: one for drafting calls for proposals and another for evaluating them. Aimed primarily to initiate a focus on this aspect of risk management, the initial lists will be further developed during interviews and workshops with potential end-users in future work.

Keywords: Risk analysis, Procurement, Quality, Evaluation, Maritime authorities, Navigation, Waterway risk, Goal-based regulation.



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