Risk Trajectory 'Theory'–Temporally Conceptualizing Risk to Aid Decision-Making Processes

This paper introduces the concept of risk trajectories to bridge the gap between the capstone risk concept and practical application. The framework conceptualizes risk trajectory as a sequential, causally linked series of consequences characterized by escalating uncertainty due to compounding effects, external factors, and diminishing control. This approach challenges traditional tools like risk matrices by incorporating uncertainty and temporal aspects of risk, empowering decision-makers to proactively manage risk trajectories. The framework's relevance is tested by NATO personnel. Initial results show that visualizing risk as a trajectory provides a nuanced depiction, capturing interconnected actions, uncertainties, and timing. This dynamic approach facilitates informed planning and decision-making, allowing practitioners to anticipate deviations and adjust proactively. Although promising for enhancing risk management in complex environments, further empirical validation through real-world applications is essential to establish robustness and reliability.

Keywords: Risk-trajectory, Planning, Decision-making, Military operations.