Expansion of Production Capacity and Vulnerability in the Electrical Connection to the National Interconnected System: Case of a Refinery Focused on Diesel

Given the growing demand for petroleum derivatives and the expansion of production, an investment of approximately US$ 1.5 billion is planned for 2027 to expand a refinery in Brazil, with a focus on diesel oil production. This scenario brings the need to ensure the reliability and safety of the refinery's electricity supply, which is connected to the Sistema Interligado Nacional (SIN) through the Abreu e Lima substation. This substation plays a crucial role in the continuity of the electricity supply, transforming and distributing energy, and must be prepared to operate safely and efficiently. In this context, it is vital to conduct contingency simulations to assess the electrical system's security requirements and identify potential vulnerabilities, especially considering the projected increase in production. The analysis of these contingencies, along with the consideration of critical scenarios in the production process, will allow the identification of points of failure in the energy supply, ensuring greater system robustness. Based on reports from the system operator and other planning organs of the SIN, this study proposes to evaluate the vulnerability of the Abreu e Lima substation through power flow simulations. These simulations will be carried out for both the current refinery scenario and the future scenario after the expansion project is completed. The goal is to provide a quantitative basis for planning a more resilient Brazilian electrical system, helping to identify vulnerabilities and propose solutions that ensure the security and robustness of the energy supply, which is essential for the operation of the interconnected system.

Keywords: Vulnerability, Power flow, Eletric power system.