Hazard Intensity Threshold for Exposure Modeling of Systems of Interest to Climate Change

The goal of adapting physical assets to climate change is to anticipate and prevent damage to these assets to maintain high levels of system performance. Exposure modeling plays a key role in this adaptation process. While climate data is available, its spatial resolution varies depending on the location of the assets. Information on physical assets also exists, but detailed damage data for a given hazard intensity is often private, particularly regarding specific assets. This lack of information hinders the creation of precise vulnerability curves and accurate hazard intensity thresholds for each asset type and subsystem. Due to these data limitations, using indicators produced by climate services is common practice. However, the relevance of these indicators for the specific system under study is not always certain. This paper presents our approach to selecting a hazard intensity threshold relevant to exposure modeling of physical assets to climate change. Our method is based on Boolean Exposure Modeling (BEM), which requires a clear definition of the hazard event (H). This approach ensures a focused response to the question: Ïs the system of interest exposed to H or not?". The methodology is applied to a case study involving administrative divisions of French territory, which contain physical assets. More specifically, the hazard intensity threshold is determined based on the Eurocode EN 1991-1-5. The result is presented as a BEM output map covering 30-year periods, using climate model data as input. This outcome enhances the exposure modeling toolbox for adapting physical assets to climate change by providing a quantitative exposure model tailored to both the assets and climate change.

Keywords: Modeling, Exposure, Physical assets, Climate change, Hazards, Territory.