A Framework to Study the Lifespan Resilience of Critical Infrastructure in the Face of the Evolution of Disaster Risks

The DRUID (Disaster Risk-gUided scenarIo Definition) method is a prospective approach to study the resilience of critical infrastructure against evolving threats such as natural and climate risks. It is structured around four phases. The Problem Definition phase formalizes the research question and collects data across four dimensions - hazards and exposure, absorptive capacity, infrastructure characteristics, and territorial context. The Scenario Building phase uses General Morphological Analysis to develop representative scenarios integrating general context, territorial aspects, disaster risks, and infrastructure considerations. The Resilience Study phase evaluates how risks affect infrastructure throughout its lifespan based on the DROP (Disaster Resilience of Place) and the resilience triangle models. It analyzes interactions between hazards, absorptive capacity, and the performance thresholds. The Problem Resolution phase translates scenarios into practical recommendations for infrastructure planning and management. The method is illustrated through a case study of a photovoltaic power plant in a Mediterranean mountainous region exposed to strong wind risks over 30 years. The study models different decision profiles (repair vs. replacement) and their impacts on system performance. A specific focus of the third phase is proposed, incorporating Monte Carlo simulations to provide statistical insights about system behavior under various conditions while considering both immediate hazard impacts and long-term adaptation needs. Through this comprehensive approach, DRUID helps infrastructure managers better understand vulnerability patterns and develop more effective resilience strategies.

Keywords: Critical infrastructure, Resilience study, Disaster risk evolution, Life cycle analysis, Methodological framework.