Methodology for Risk Assessment in Technology Incorporation in the Oil & Gas Industry

The Oil & Gas sector is continuously seeking new technologies aimed at increasing well productivity, reducing costs and operational risks. In addition to the challenges directly associated with technological development, there is an important issue related to the incorporation of new technology: on one hand, there is a desire to apply the new technology as soon as possible, anticipating the capture of its benefits; on the other hand, there is the risk of not having it available by the intended date, delaying production and leading to losses that may exceed the promised benefits. This issue is exacerbated by the high lead time required between contracting and the availability of the necessary technologies.
The risk of readiness can be reduced by considering contingency routes. However, if this strategy is not carefully crafted, it may come at the cost of significantly reduced expected benefits.
Utilizing new techniques and computational tools to develop dynamic models that assist decision-making is one of the main approaches to adapting to constant changes and the inherent complexities of technological development and technology incorporation. These models allow for a more accurate assessment of risks and opportunities, contributing to the effectiveness and efficiency of innovation processes. Furthermore, the implementation of robust metrics and probabilistic representations of risks enables better management of project portfolios, aligning them with the strategic objectives of organizations and aiming to maximize returns on their investments.
It is noteworthy that companies have generated large volumes of data on the evolution of maturity and risk metrics, characterizing the dynamics of their developments, which can be used in project analyses.
This paper presents a methodology to support decision-making during the planning, development, and incorporation of new technologies.

Keywords: Risk analysis, Simulation, Technology development, Technology incorporation, Technology readiness level, Project planning.