Proceedings of the
35th European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL2025) and
the 33rd Society for Risk Analysis Europe Conference (SRA-E 2025)
15 – 19 June 2025, Stavanger, Norway

Climate Risk Mitigation in Longyearbyen, Svalbard

Marianne Nitter1,a, Jacob Taarup Esbensen2 and Bjørn Ivar Kruke1,b

1University of Stavanger, Norway.

2University College, Copenhagen.

ABSTRACT

The Svalbard Archipelago has experienced the fastest and highest temperature increases in recent decades, due to man-made greenhouse gas emissions, reinforced by the melting of sea ice, which exposes, in particular, the west coast of Svalbard to the warmer temperatures of the ocean, also during the winter. This increase in temperature has effects on the weather patterns, precipitation and thawing of the permafrost, all of which expose settlements and critical infrastructure to a different risk picture and a subsequent need for climate change adaptation. Some of these threats have already materialised in Longyearbyen, the largest settlement on Svalbard, as the town witnessed an increased frequency of landslides, rockslides, snow avalanches, erosion, receding permafrost and floods. However, the scenarios concerning both future temperature increase and climate change impact on society are uncertain since this is the starting point for assessing climate risk and developing risk-based climate change adaptation methodologies. This paper discusses the risk-based approach to climate change adaptation in Longyearbyen. More precisely, the paper aims to discuss how a changing climate reflects risk- and vulnerability analysis and urban planning in Longyearbyen. Data is collected through document analysis and interviews with stakeholders in Longyearbyen. Findings indicate that the authorities the last decade have implemented both short- and longer-term measures to adapt to a changing climate, but also the uncertainty related to the physical and social consequences of a warmer climate.

Keywords: Climate change, Risk- and vulnerability analysis, Mitigation, Climate change adaptation, Disaster risk reduction, Longyearbyen.



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