Proceedings of the
The Nineteenth International Conference on Computational Intelligence and Security (CIS 2023)
December 1 – 4, 2023, Haikou, China
Simulations and Analysis of the Second COVID-19 Epidemic in Beijing
School of Mathematics and Physics, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing, China.
ABSTRACT
Over the past three years, the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has placed tremendous pressure on prevention, control, and healthcare systems worldwide. Many countries have experienced multiple outbreaks of the COVID-19 epidemic. In 2020, the second epidemic in Beijing provided detailed reports on symptomatic and asymptomatic infected and recovered individuals, as well as valuable examples of accurate prevention and control strategies and excellent clinical treatments. This paper uses a symptomatic-asymptomatic–recoverer differential equation model (SARDEM) and real-world data to model and simulate the second epidemic in Beijing, estimate the transmission rates and recovery rates for symptomatic and asymptomatic infections. The results were in good agreement with the real-world data on the endpoint days of the investigated time intervals. The simulations show that blocking rates of (97.48%, 96.80%) for symptomatic and asymptomatic infections cannot prevent the spread of the epidemic. After day 28, the blocking rates for symptomatic and asymptomatic infections were higher than (99.80%, 98.19%), which led to the end of the second Beijing epidemic on day 56. This paper proposes recommendations for the prevention and control to COVID-19 epidemic based on WHO's COVID-19 technic guidelines and HBV Infection in chimpanzees.
Keywords: COVID-19, Beijing epidemic, Mathematical model, Biological computing, Effect estimations.
Download PDF
School of Mathematics and Physics, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing, China.
ABSTRACT
Over the past three years, the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has placed tremendous pressure on prevention, control, and healthcare systems worldwide. Many countries have experienced multiple outbreaks of the COVID-19 epidemic. In 2020, the second epidemic in Beijing provided detailed reports on symptomatic and asymptomatic infected and recovered individuals, as well as valuable examples of accurate prevention and control strategies and excellent clinical treatments. This paper uses a symptomatic-asymptomatic–recoverer differential equation model (SARDEM) and real-world data to model and simulate the second epidemic in Beijing, estimate the transmission rates and recovery rates for symptomatic and asymptomatic infections. The results were in good agreement with the real-world data on the endpoint days of the investigated time intervals. The simulations show that blocking rates of (97.48%, 96.80%) for symptomatic and asymptomatic infections cannot prevent the spread of the epidemic. After day 28, the blocking rates for symptomatic and asymptomatic infections were higher than (99.80%, 98.19%), which led to the end of the second Beijing epidemic on day 56. This paper proposes recommendations for the prevention and control to COVID-19 epidemic based on WHO's COVID-19 technic guidelines and HBV Infection in chimpanzees.
Keywords: COVID-19, Beijing epidemic, Mathematical model, Biological computing, Effect estimations.
Download PDF