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<doi>0821-cd</doi>
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<article-title>Representative Natural Hazard Scenarios for Risk Assessment of Spatially Distributed Infrastructure Systems</article-title>
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<author>Hugo Rosero-Vel&#225;squez<sup>a</sup> and Daniel Straub<sup>b</sup></author>

<aff>Engineering Risk Analysis Group, Technische Universit&#228;t M&#252;nchen, Germany</aff>

<email><a href="mailto:hugo.rosero@tum.de"><sup>a</sup>hugo.rosero@tum.de</a></email>

<email><a href="mailto:straub@tum.de"><sup>b</sup>straub@tum.de</a></email>

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<title>ABSTRACT</title>
<p>Representative scenarios with predefined return periods are of importance in many contexts, including risk communication and quantitative risk assessments for which simple Monte-Carlo based analysis is not possible. Determining a hazard scenario associated to a specific return period for designing or assessing an infrastructure system is nontrivial, because the intensity of a natural hazard impact on an infrastructure system is spatially variable. In this paper, we propose a methodology for determining representative spatially-distributed hazard scenarios. It is based on a sampling-based system analysis utilizing a simplified system model based on network efficiency. The methodology is demonstrated by application to an idealized lifeline system.</p>
<p><italic>Keywords: </italic>Hazard Model, Infrastructure Model, Lifeline Systems, Engineering Systems, Risk Analysis, Representative Scenario.</p>
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<hpdf>0821</hpdf>
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