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<doi>0766-cd</doi>
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<article-title>Spatial Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis in Consideration with Temporal Changes of Probabilities of Earthquakes Occurrence</article-title>
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<author>Takayuki Hayashi<sup>1</sup> and Harumi Yashiro<sup>2</sup></author>

<aff><sup>1</sup>Risk Modeling &amp; Analytics Unit / Tokio Marine &amp; Nichido Risk Consulting Co. Ltd., Japan</aff>

<email><a href="mailto:takayuki.hayashi@tokiorisk.co.jp">takayuki.hayashi@tokiorisk.co.jp</a></email>

<aff><sup>2</sup>Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National Defense Academy, Japan</aff>

<email><a href="mailto:hyashiro@nda.ac.jp">hyashiro@nda.ac.jp</a></email>

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<title>ABSTRACT</title>
<p>Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is needed to understand the regions where strong ground motions occur and its occurrence probability. In PSHA for the specific area, spatial correlation of seismic ground motion should be considered. Meanwhile, the return period of some large earthquake around Japan are estimated as a few hundreds of years, and the probability of occurrence rise significantly over several decades with the passage of time. In areas affected by such earthquakes, it is necessary to consider the temporal changes of occurrence probability during the period to be considered in PSHA. In this study, we proposed the spatial probabilistic seismic hazard analysis considering the spatial correlation of earthquake ground motion with the temporal change of the occurrence probabilities of large earthquakes. We modeled spatial correlation of seismic ground motion from observation data by statistical processing and calculate the occurrence probability of a large earthquake that changes with time taking into consideration the uncertainty of data. We calculated the relationship between the maximum seismic intensity and probability of occurrence in a specific area by trial calculation for Kanagawa prefecture and discussed its temporal change. Furthermore, application of such analysis results to regional disaster prevention planning was discussed.</p>
<p><italic>Keywords: </italic>Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, Spatial correlation, Earthquake occurrence probability, Renewal process, Simple kriging.</p>
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<hpdf>0766</hpdf>
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