<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
<?xml-stylesheet href="client.xsl" type="text/xsl"?>
<article article-type="other">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id/>
<issn/>
<banner>
<href>banner.jpg</href>
<size width="100%"/>
</banner>
</journal-meta>
<doi>0731-cd</doi>
<article-meta>
<title-group>
<article-title>OR03: A New Bayesian Estimator of Failure Rates to Deal with Heterogeneous Data from the OREDA Database</article-title>
</title-group>

<author>Nicolas Clav&#233;<sup>1</sup>, Sophie Mercier<sup>2,a</sup>, Laurent Bordes<sup>2,b</sup> and Pierre-Joseph Cacheux<sup>3</sup></author>

<aff><sup>1</sup>Total E&amp;P DSO/IP/EXP/MIN, CSTJF Avenue Larribau - Pau, France</aff>

<email><a href="mailto:nicolas.clave@total.com">nicolas.clave@total.com</a></email>

<aff><sup>2</sup>CNRS / UNIV. PAU &amp; PAYS ADOUR, E2S UPPA, IPRA / LMAP - Pau, France</aff>

<email><a href="mailto:sophie.mercier@univ-pau.fr"><sup>a</sup>sophie.mercier@univ-pau.fr</a></email>

<email><a href="mailto:laurent.bordes@univ-pau.fr"><sup>b</sup>laurent.bordes@univ-pau.fr</a></email>

<aff><sup>3</sup>Total E&amp;P AF/AO-TEP/DHSAP/SO/B17, Total E&amp;P Angola - Luanda, Angola</aff>

<email><a href="mailto:pierre-joseph.cacheux@total.com">pierre-joseph.cacheux@total.com</a></email>

</article-meta></front>
<body>
<abstract>
<title>ABSTRACT</title>
<p>In order to calculate failure rate estimates from their reliability databank, the OREDA (Offshore and onshore REliability DAta) JIP (Joint Industry Project) Company members developed successively in the 1980s and in the 1990s two statistical methods: OR01 (Maximum Likelihood estimator i.e. a very basic estimator) and OR02 (an estimator developed by SINTEF in 1997 and so far more elaborated). From 2012 to 2016, Total&#39;s Representatives to OREDA and the French University of PAU &amp; PAYS ADOUR worked together on a new estimator: OR03. The innovative aspect of this estimating method is the introduction of maintenance expert judgement in parallel with a strong mathematical background. The first tests performed in early 2017 demonstrated that OR03 seems to be more efficient and more robust than the two other estimators, especially for small samples. As a consequence, the OREDA JIP members decided to implement it as soon as possible in its new data collection/analysis software.</p>
<p><italic>Keywords: </italic>Reliability data, Database, Failure rate, Statistical method, Bayesian method, Clustered data, Expert judgment.</p>
</abstract>
<fpdf>
<href>pdflogo.jpg</href>
<hpdf>0731</hpdf>
</fpdf>
</body>
</article>