The comparative evaluation of accident risks in the energy sector aims to produce consistent and quantitative risk performance indicators. The current study analyses the potential impacts of long-term energy scenarios on the overall accident risk of different country groups (OECD, EU28, non-OECD, North America (NAM), SE Asia) and individual countries (USA, Japan, Brazil, Russia, India, China (BRIC)), taking into account both average and marginal electricity supply mixes until 2030. In a first step, severe (≥5 fatalities) accidents were extracted from PSI's Energy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD), which provides a global coverage of complete energy chains for the period 1970-2016. Subsequently, normalized fatality rates were calculated for the previously mentioned country groups and individual countries, both for current (reference year 2017) and future (2030) conditions. Lastly, fatality rates and scenario data were combined to assess the overall accident risk per country group / country, type of mix and year. Generally, OECD, EU28, NAM, USA and Japan exhibited a better performance than emerging and less developed economies (i.e. SE Asia, BRIC countries, non-OECD). In summary, the study demonstrated that scenarios with more ambitious climate goals contribute to reduced overall accident risks, and that consideration of marginal mixes is essential because in the longer term they benefit from the increased penetration of new renewables at the expense of large, centralized power plants.