Uncertainty is a multifaceted issue that has gained increasing attention in risk research in recent years. It is generally agreed that, although all risk assessments are characterized by uncertainties, the uncertainties related to security risks, such as terrorism, are considered to be much greater than those for safety risks – but what does this really mean? Moreover, how can these uncertainties be assessed and expressed in a security risk analysis context?
Terrorism is intractable in terms of contested knowledge and expertise, contested values and unpredictability, in relation to religious and ideological dimensions, and territorial and geopolitical struggles. Thus, terrorism is a transboundary wicked problem, in which uncertainties and ambiguities will always be embedded.
Different perspectives on the risk concept exist, and we discuss what uncertainty means, according to the different perspectives. Furthermore, we account for the characteristics of security that are related to uncertainty in security risk analysis. In security risk assessment, uncertainties are related to many levels and aspects of the analysis. We propose a framework for uncertainty factors in security risks assessments. We conclude that, to make knowledge-based decisions regarding security issues, uncertainties are not something that should be delimited. On the contrary, uncertainties are important factors in the risk analysis and, consequently, they should be made visible and be discussed, highlighted and explored.