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<doi>0212-cd</doi>
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<article-title>Efficient Risk Based Optimization of Large System Models using a Reduced Petri Net Methodology</article-title>
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<author>Susannah Naybour<sup>1,a</sup>, John Andrews<sup>1,b</sup> and Manuel Chiachio-Ruano<sup>2</sup></author>

<aff><sup>1</sup>Resilience Engineering Research Group, University of Nottingham, United Kingdom.</aff>
<email><a href="mailto:Susannah.Naybour@nottingham.ac.uk"><sup>a</sup>Susannah.Naybour@nottingham.ac.uk</a></email>
<email><a href="mailto:John.Andrews@nottingham.ac.uk"><sup>b</sup>John.Andrews@nottingham.ac.uk</a></email>
<aff><sup>2</sup>Institute for Data Science and Computational Intelligence (DaSCI) &amp; Dept. Structural Mechanics and Hydraulics Engineering, University of Granada, Spain.</aff>


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<title>ABSTRACT</title>
<p>The methodology presented in this paper is a two-stage optimization approach that can be applied to large system level models, in this case using a Stochastic Petri Net (SPN) framework, to produce an equivalent model response at a reduced computational cost. The method consists of generating a reduced SPN which approximates the behavior of its large counterpart with a shorter simulation time. Parameters in this reduced structure are updated following a combined Approximate Bayesian Computation and Subset Simulation framework. In the first stage, optimization of the reduced model via a Genetic Algorithm provides a first approximation of the optimal solutions for the full system level model. In the second stage, these approximate optimal solutions then form the starting point of a short optimization of the large SPN to fine tune the results using a reduced solution space. This method is demonstrated for a sub-section of an SPN of a fire protection system. Optimization of the full model with a Genetic Algorithm is compared to the optimization through this two-stage approach to demonstrate the capability of the methodology. Results show good model agreement at a reduced computational cost.</p>
<p><italic>Keywords: </italic>Petri Nets, Risk, Optimization, Genetic Algorithms, Approximate Bayesian Computation, Subset Simulation.</p>
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